January 2026
The National Federation of Independent Business (“NFIB”) Small Business Optimism Index is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components calculated based on a survey of around 620 NFIB members. The questions in the survey include: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect the economy to improve, expect real sales to be higher, current inventory levels, current job openings, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend.
According to the NFIB ”The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose for a second consecutive month, reaching 99.5 in December 2025, its highest level since August and in line with market expectations. The index remains above its 52-year average of 98, supported primarily by a rise in owners expecting better business conditions, which jumped 9 points to a net 24%. Reports of positive profit trends also improved slightly, rising 3 points from November to a net negative 20%. When evaluating the overall health of their businesses, 9% of owners rated it excellent (down 2 points), 54% rated it good (up 1 point), 34% rated it fair (up 4 points), and 3% rated it poor (down 2 points). However, plans for hiring, capital outlays, and expectations for higher real sales all declined. Taxes were cited as the most important problem by 20% of small business owners, up 6 points from November and the highest reading since May 2021. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index fell 7 points to 84, marking its lowest level since June 2024.”
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is useful in gauging the optimism of a group of relatively small businesses, but it is limited by its survey of only around 620 NFIB members.
The following is a graph of the Index over the last 10 years. It peaked in August 2018 at 108.8 and was at its lowest point in March 2024.
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Additional data can be found at: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/nfib-business-optimism-index.
Relevant Court Cases
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Kevin Burke et. al. v. Houston PT BAC Office Limited
Partnership (Bank of America),
Supreme Court of Texas,
No. 24-0135,
dated December 19, 2025
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Streck, Inc. et. al. v. Carol Ryan et. al.,
Nebraska Supreme Court,
320 Nebraska 638,
opinon filed January 9, 2026
Recent Business Valuation Articles
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“Fair Value Accounting and
the Credibility of Management Forecasts,”
by Min Jeong (Minna) Hong,
posted January 17, 2026
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“Does AI Engagement Enhance Firm Value?
A Market-based Perspective,”
by Sarula Bai and Cheol-Won Yang,
dated September, 2025
Recent Engagements
- Valuation of non-voting
member units of a mostly real
estate holding company on a
minority interest basis for
estate tax reporting purposes.
- Valuation of limited partnership
interests of an investment
holding partnership on a minority
interest basis for gift tax
reporting purposes.
- Valuation of a minority interest
in a general partnership for
estate tax reporting purposes.
- Valuation of 100% of the
common stock of a niche
contracting firm on a controlling
interest basis for planning
purposes.
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